Tora! Tora! Tora!

The real estate market bubble burst was somewhat like the attack on Pearl Harbor, only a few knew it was coming, but nobody paid any attention to it until it was too late.

As values began to sink, real estate practitioners and prognosticators tried to figure out how not to let the firestorm spread throughout the fleet. They came up with the all too familiar slogan, “All real estate is local”. I suppose that gave some people comfort as markets in Florida, Nevada, Arizona and Southern California were sinking with no bottom in sight.

Although all real estate is local just like we as people are all the same but different, the overall effect of the economy impacted real estate in practically every corner of America as well as overseas in Europe.

Today the economy is starting to show some glimmer of hope that we are in the beginning stages of a recovery and that recovery will be lead by the real estate market along with the job market.

One of the markets I take a personal interest in is Florida. I was reading an article about the Southwest coast of Florida housing market and a broker who was being quoted said something that I believe is beginning to ring true here on Martha’s Vineyard. She said, “Smart buyers have stopped looking for bargains”. I know, that sounds ridiculous because it is human nature to always look for a bargain. The key to being a savvy shopper is to know when the price has reached the point where it is as good as it is going to get. That is when you stop shopping and start negotiating. In other words, as it pertains to real estate, when the trend has flattened out and is on the verge of reversing itself.

The broker went on to say, speaking about her clients, “They don't even bother asking about list prices anymore; they just drive around and when they see something they like, they offer the owner what they think the property is worth.” What have I been saying for years? Offer what it is worth to you. I am not talking about throwing irresponsible uninformed numbers around. My clients know the market and what values are or should be because I concentrate on educating them about the Martha’s Vineyard market.

I know what you’re thinking, you agree that now is a good time to buy but there is one problem. I hear this quite often: “There is nothing out there that I like or think is a good opportunity.” Sure, that can be just an excuse not to buy, but I have to agree to a certain extent because there is a lot of junk on the market – overpriced junk. However, if you look through this update and at the properties that are selling, properties under contract or being negotiated you will see that the better properties are selling. I think most sellers have finally realized, in this market we are no longer the goose that laid the golden egg and more than ever before the market is very price sensitive.

When buying a property on Martha’s Vineyard you have to realize that ‘perfection’ is hard to find; it is up to you to create that perfection. Give me a chance and I will do my best to get you as close as I can to the beginning of Your Perfection.

Ssshhhhhhhhh, Martha’s Only Sleeping

Please, don't wake me, no, don't shake me
Leave me where I am - I'm only sleeping

Everybody seems to think I'm lazy
I don't mind, I think they're crazy
Running everywhere at such a speed
Till they find there's no need (there's no need)

Please, don't spoil my day, I'm miles away
And after all I'm only sleeping

Keeping an eye on the world going by my window
Taking my time

(Partial Lyrics to I’m Only Sleeping by The Beatles)

I had to laugh when I saw a recent article from the WSJ selecting Martha’s Vineyard as one of the ten AMERICAN GHOST TOWNS OF THE 21ST CENTURY, ranking Dukes County at number 7.

It’s true that Martha’s Vineyard has always been like the tides that surround her, with a population that comes in and goes out on a regular basis. I think that ebb and flow is part of what makes Martha’s Vineyard so special. It is that time between the supercharged high tide that gives Martha and her permanent year round citizenship respite to recharge their batteries and enjoy all the tenderness and calm that is the essence of Martha’s Vineyard. That’s why I am here. Ssshhhhhhhhh!

Find The Perfect Home Loan and Get Your Financing On Track

Here are 5 really good articles for Home Buyers to help you get better prepared for the purchase of your dream vacation home on Martha's Vineyard.

• 

  5 Tips for Deciphering Your Home Loan’s Good-faith Estimate

  Knowing how to read your good-faith estimate can help you save money on your home loan. Read
• 

  7 Homeowner Tax Advantages

  When you’re evaluating how much home you can afford, make sure you factor in the tax advantages of homeownership. Read
• 

  4 Tips to Determine How Much Mortgage You Can Afford

  By knowing how much mortgage you can handle, you can ensure that home ownership will fit in your budget. Read
• 

  7 Tips for Improving Your Credit

  Here’s how to clean up your credit so you get the least-expensive home loan possible. Read
• 

  Find the Home Loan that Fits Your Needs

  Understand which mortgage loan is best for you so your budget is not stretched too thin. Read

Visit houselogic.com for more articles like this.

Copyright 2010 NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®

"The World's Gonna Find a Way" but we want it Now -- Today!

Do you remember Ray Steven’s 1970’s hit song, “Everything is Beautiful”?
I wonder how that song would play today.

“There is none so blind as he who will not see
We must not close our minds
We must let our thoughts be free
For every hour that passes by
You know the world gets a little bit older
It's time to realize that beauty lies
In the eyes of the beholder.”

For so many people, everything is not beautiful these days and life sucks. But we keep believing and trying to see the beauty in our lives. We must remain positive and hopeful.

The sing-song lyrics go on beseeching us –
“And we gonna get it all together now
Everything gonna work out fine
Just take a little time to look on the good side my friend
And straighten it out in your mind.”

We thought we were getting it all together but now all you hear is double dip recession, disrespect for our elected President and rancor among the political parties.

Working in real estate, I desperately want everything to be beautiful, but the truth is it is going to take longer than any of us thought before everything is beautiful again.

In a survey conducted by the Cape & Plymouth Business group, they concluded that the majority of respondents who were private business owners felt:
The economy will improve slightly in 2011
Small business owners will not hire additional staff
Businesses will not raise capital and if they do it will be through bank loans and private investors
Businesses will not expand or invest in property or equipment
Housing prices will remain flat
The strongest contributors to the Cape and Island economy will be Tourism/Retail and Health Care
Revenue increases of 1% - 10% are projected through local and regional sources

I guess that means there is hope, but not much confidence. Perhaps, because Cape Cod and the Islands are resort destinations, merchants are hoping people will still need mental health R&R vacations in 2011. I could use one right now, but I live here in paradise so I will simply go for a walk and appreciate what I have around me all the time.

What is not beautiful is the looming Shadow Inventory of foreclosures, and in 2011 it is predicted that nationally there will be a record high volume of foreclosures. According to Inman News, Core Logic reported that the "shadow" inventory of homes likely to be repossessed or already in REO inventory but not yet on the market reached 2.1 million units in August, up from 1.9 million units a year ago. Because home sales have also slowed, that represents 8 months supply, up from 5 months one year ago. Adding the 2.1 million shadow inventory to the 4.2 million homes on the market, causes the total supply to reach 23 months of inventory, almost double NAR's estimate in September. In the markets yet to be affected by foreclosures, prices will go down more but in markets where the majority of foreclosures have already occurred, they may have already bottomed out.

Experts predict that when tallied, 2010 will show fewer home sales than 2009 and the dollar volume will be lower than 2009. Keep in mind that 2009 was a lack luster year for sales. The beginning of 2010 was stimulated by the home buyer tax credits so we might consider that as being a false start. The fact of the matter is that there are better opportunities available right now even without the home buyer tax credit, but people are not jumping to take advantage of those once in a lifetime opportunities. Interest rates will most likely go up in 2011, as they already are right now. I doubt that will affect sales because despite the current record low rates it did not have much impact on sales this year. Without a job, job security or a steady income low interest rates become moot.

2011 will prove to be just more of the same and the housing market will not recover until people have jobs and the confidence to act upon their pent-up desire to BUY a home.

However, since Martha’s Vineyard is primarily a second home market I believe everything could be beautiful for those buyers who keep their finger on the pulse, have financial security and recognize that this is probably the best opportunity in their lifetime to own a piece of The Rock. They recognize to wait would be penny wise and dollar foolish. With 712 properties currently on the market and many properties ‘off market’ but still for sale there is a lot to choose from for a very limited pool of qualified buyers. There is no reason why a savvy buyer cannot find a good deal here. Currently, there are 70 properties either under contract or being negotiated, so some people are still singing ‘Everything is Beautiful’.

Over the years, many Buyers who have contacted me, read through the copious amount of FOR BUYERS ONLY information on my website and subscribed to my Buyer's Basic e-Newsletter have remarked that they perceive my function as one of a consultant and information provider, rather than as a 'realtor'. As an exclusive advocate for buyers I believe educating buyers is a vital part of my job. However, as a real estate professional, my business is consummating the purchase and sale of real estate. If you appreciate the consistent effort I make to bring you 'No Bull' educational information, please contact me when you are ready to buy. I want your business, so please come to me first. I can assure you that I will put your interests before my own and do my utmost to negotiate the best price and terms for you. I will work very hard to discover all the details and hidden secrets of the property you are purchasing so that you will not have any unpleasant surprises.

Keep the faith, “The world's gonna find a way.”

How to Overcome the Fear of Buying a Home In This Economy?

The first questions any buyer must ask themselves today are:
1) Can I afford to buy a home?
2) Can I afford to keep and maintain a home?
3) Can I sell the home quickly if I need to?

Can I afford to buy a home?
Before you get into a car with your buyer agent to drive around looking at homes, do yourself a favor and find out how much home you can afford to buy. That means going to a trusted lender and painting an accurate picture for them of all your finances – how much cash you have for a down payment, the extent of your debts, employment – everything! Do you know your credit score? Today there is more to consider when buying a home than simply PITI (Principal, Interest, Taxes and Insurance), but if you keep this in mind you are now free to begin the fun part, looking for your dream home at a price you know you can afford. Your buyer agent can give you a list of lenders to contact and make sure our excellent local banks are on your list. Prices and terms have never been better than right now.

Can I afford to keep and maintain a home?
You found your dream home and the seller has accepted your Offer to Purchase. Buying a home today means you had better plan on keeping it for at least 10 years. This is going to be a very slow and long recovery. This is not an economic environment conducive to quick money making turnovers. This is the time to buy ‘generational properties’.

This is all the more reason you must factor in repairs and maintenance. Big ticket items like roofs, siding, windows, fuel tanks, heating systems and water heaters all have life spans. If the roof is 25 years old you can probably plan on having to replace it within the first 5 years you own the home. If the oil tank is the old single-wall design it needs to go right away.

As part of any Offer to Purchase contract there must be a contingency for a Home Inspection. The inspection will seek to determine the condition of the home construction, its systems and appliances. Ongoing maintenance and replacement expenses need to be factored into any budget so it behooves you to use a good structural inspector and additional specialists if necessary. You want to find out as much as you can about the house before you buy it. If the structural inspection shows significant deficiencies see if you can negotiate concessions with the seller to offset the repairs, or if the onus becomes yours at least get repair estimates to determine if you will have the funds to make the repairs yourself. This way if you won’t have the additional funds, you are still able to reconsider your purchase so you don’t get yourself into a bind.

Can I sell the home quickly if I need to?
Location, Location, Location. The majority of buyers today begin their search for a home on the Internet, but what does the Internet tell you about location, very little. Advertising and marketing is all about selling the sizzle. Even though false advertizing is against the law and also violates the REALTOR® Code of Ethics, we see subtle prevarications all the time. So, don’t believe everything you read about a property on the Internet. Google is not enough. You need to get up and get out and get educated. The purchase you are about to make is too big to have a casual armchair attitude about it.

Martha’s Vineyard is a complex market and one that most buyers know very little about. That is why you want a real estate market expert who will advise you about the area you are considering for your purchase. You want someone who does the research and will give you accurate information. What is good about the area? What is bad about the area? Is there any forecast for change in that area? Knowing about an area will give you a good idea of how easy it would be to sell a home should you have an unexpected emergency?

As I said before, it is going to take years for the real estate market to recover, which is not to say you should not buy a house now, but do your homework and wait for the right house at a price you are comfortable with.

ADVICE TO SELLERS – Not from me, a Martha’s Vineyard Broker, but from a nationally renowned ‘Expert’.

If you have ever watched the NBC Today Show and their ‘Today’s Real Estate’ segment, then you have listened to the self-professed real estate expert and mogul, Barbara Corcoran who has been in the biz since she was in her early 20’s. Her latest advice to Sellers is as follows – and I totally agree with her.

1) If you have listed your property for sale and it is not selling at the listing price, lowering the price in small increments does not get noticed and never gets attention. It is better to take a one-time big chunk off the price. That will get noticed.

2) If you list your property with a seller agent, stick with them unless they have done something absolutely awful and unethical. Changing agents only serves to confuse the market, and since agents sell 90% of the houses, you don’t want to confuse the agents either.

Here on Martha’s Vineyard, and throughout the national real estate market overall it has been common practice for seller agents to accept overpriced listings.

In some cases seller agents have given unrealistic inflated opinions of value in order to charm the sellers and get the listings. Or even more often, the seller agents let the uniformed and biased sellers price the property contrary to the studied opinion of value offered by the professional seller agents.

I have argued this point with some of my colleagues here on Martha’s Vineyard for years, but I do respectfully – and I do mean ‘respectfully’ understand their point of view. Why do they take an over priced listing instead of walking away from it? Their usual defensive response is, “If I don’t take the listing someone else will.”

Come on SELLERS, get real.

Do you want to sell NOW? Be honest, do you need to sell and cut your loses? If you price your property correctly it will sell, and if you don’t price it correctly just assume that you have not listed it. Matter of fact, the only purpose your property will serve is to help sell comparable properties that are priced correctly.

If you don’t have to sell, relax, sit back and wait. Don’t worry; the market will recover some day soon.

The Bottom Of The Market Feels Like A Bumpy Road

It’s the New Year, and just in time the banks are raising interest rates, but just a little – so far. However, the banks are also relaxing their down-payment requirements because they are seeing increased confidence in the housing market. The truth, according to one banker friend I spoke with is because they are not making any money. They need to make loans to make money. In some markets borrowers can now borrow 95% of a property’s value. Of course one would hope this means property values are not going down any further and loan applicants are going to be scrupulously vetted?

Despite favorable sales figures as we finished out this year, Tim Warren Jr., CEO of the Warren Group sees home prices bouncing up and down along the bottom during the next 3-6 months, and possibly throughout most of 2010 even though sales figures will appear to continue trending positively. This is the way it was in the early 90’s as we pulled out of the last recession. Some economists call this an “L” recession. For sure the recovery is going to be slow, but I do think it is safe to say we are at the bottom albeit a bumpy bottom. I believe in making a decision about when is the best time for you to buy an investment property one indicator you should pay attention to is interest rates. When interest rates go up this can herald the onset of an inflationary period.

Warren feels it was the rush to take advantage of the initial first-time home buyer tax credit by signing contracts before November 2009 expiration that contributed the biggest boost to the market. Wednesday’s WSJ reported that first-time buyers made up 51% of purchases in November, according to NAR. The initial first-time home buyer tax credit has been extended and broadened to include more potential buyers which may once again give a boost to the housing market. Contracts have to be signed by April 30, 2010 with closing dates on or before June 30, 2010. According to Carl Reichardt, an analyst with Wells Fargo, “The spring selling season would be critical to determining whether a possible double-dip is at hand, or whether housing’s recovery will regain steam.”

Tim Warren believes another reason for the upturn is the brighter unemployment figures in Massachusetts which in turn enhance consumer confidence. Okay, but one of my sources tells me the actual national unemployment figure is above 17%, if you factor in the non-registered ‘shadow’ unemployed.

News Flash: Massachusetts unemployment rate drops slightly from 8.9% to 8.8%
Read about it here > http://www.businessconnector.biz/news/show/523

In January, it is predicted that 1,000,000 unemployed workers will lose their benefits. Another prediction is going to be a surge in commercial foreclosures as more companies lay off workers and close doors in leased office spaces. But who knows? I still believe in miracles.

THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS WE HEAD INTO 2010

Will we see more Foreclosures? Will we see more Short Sales? Will we see more Unemployment? Sadly, the answer to all these questions is yes. Most likely all of these events will once again push home prices down further. Here’s another question: will interest rates go up? Most analysts say yes; they will go up in 2010.

It’s clear that people are in the market now making purchases. They are taking advantage of the low – very low interest rates and the newly rewritten and extended first time home buyer tax credit. Many are using this new opportunity to trade up to the home of their dreams. But does this mean the market is recovering or do we have further to travel before we bottom out? I just don’t know.

Here's what HomeGain.com, a web marketing company that tracks the real estate market, has discovered in a recent survey.

62% of home BUYERS think homes on the market are overpriced.

76% of home OWNERS think their homes are worth more than their real estate agent recommends.

41% of home OWNERS think their homes’ listing price should be 10%-20% higher than their real estate agent recommends.

24% of real estate agents think home prices will go up in the next 6 months.

48% of real estate agents think home prices will remain flat in the next 6 months.

Note: NAR says 2mm people benefited from the first go-around of the tax credit. During this extension period of the Home Buyer Tax Credit, home owners who have been in their homes for 5 years can realize a tax credit deduction of up to $6,500 expansion, but they have to act soon.

Click here to read more > http://www.marealtor.com/content/Homebuyer_Tax_Credit.htm

What I do know is, as long as you have job stability, the monthly payments of your loan are affordable and not a stretch or based upon any projected rental income, and you are buying the home of your dreams that will make you happy for the long term, this is the time to buy. As I have said before, up or down, in ten years $10,000 to $20,000 will not matter, but don’t buy something just because the prices are attractive now – at least not on Martha’s Vineyard.

There are a number of properties on the market right now that appear to be very attractive buys. However, many of them are using an “As Is” caveat. That is because the seller usually does not have the funds to make any repairs that could possibly be discovered during a Structural Home Inspection. He is telling you the Buyer up front that no matter what the problem is; it is your problem. Your home inspector or your real estate agent may try to minimize the costs of the required repairs, but let me assure you nothing is inexpensive here on Martha’s Vineyard. Don’t romance yourself into false assumptions; have your buyer agent get you the facts. I do that for all my clients because I hate surprises.

So as this year skids to a close, let’s keep our eye on the prize, have a clear vision of what is important and move forward with intelligent thinking.

If You Don't Buy a House Now, You're Stupid or Broke

Interest rates are at historic lows but cyclical trends suggest they will soon rise. Home buyers may never see such a chance again, writes Marc Roth for Business Week.

A Vineyard Primer Not Just For The Obamas

When I was a young child, my family would “summer in the Hamptons”, which describes the three towns near the far end of Long Island, NY. I remember the trip out there as if it were yesterday. It was an easy but boring 3-hour ride from Westchester County in our 1949 Ford “Woody” station wagon. We knew when we were getting close because the scenery would turn into potato fields and all you could smell was duck and chicken poop. The houses my family rented looked like the barracks I lived in during my military basic training and none of them were air conditioned, but they were right on the water. We would stay all summer and we rarely had a TV, but life was wonderfully simple.

The other night I watched the pilot program for a new TV series, ROYAL PAINS, on the USA Network. It’s about a young surgeon played by Mark Feuerstein who is fired from a hospital, sued for malpractice and blackballed. He decides to go to the Hamptons with his brother, the accountant, for a weekend of party crashing and debauchery, but he ends up staying for the summer as a concierge doctor to the rich and famous. What I like so much about the show is that it presents a showcase of the Hamptons in 2009. It sure has come a long way since I was a little boy or even since I went back there during my college years for fun and mischief.

Martha’s Vineyard could become, maybe it is already, the new home of the rich and famous --- the CEO and celebrity playground. With properties like Steve Rattner’s newly completed 15,000sf plus compound on Obed Daggett Road on Cedar Tree Neck, and the equally excessive estate properties belonging to high rollers like Brian Roberts, Dirk and Robert Ziff, Jerome Kenney and Bill Graham in the area, Martha’s Vineyard is losing its battle to stay small and simple the way it was 40 years ago when I first drove my yellow Corvette roadster off the ferry.

Many of us have received calls from the White House advance agents inquiring about accommodations for August rental lodging. The general consensus here is that the President will be renting a house on Temahigan Avenue close to the State Police headquarters, maybe the old Gloria Swanson house on the water side. There is still no definitive word on what the Clintons are planning, but we keep hearing about Ted Danson’s home up-Island and Chelsea’s wedding plans at the large Chilmark estate of long time Clinton friend and Washington power broker Vernon Jordan.

I guess we will just have to accept the fact that we are no longer inaccessible and anonymous; we have a reputation now that people like to brag about, and complain about. Maybe one day we will change our name to Martha’s Vineyardton. Here is a short essay that appeared in the Boston Globe titled A Vineyard primer for Obamas that provoked dozens of reader comments. The comments section is always fun to read because people have such strong views for and against what is Martha’s Vineyard. The Vineyard is all about passion and emotion and trying to hold onto what most of us remember as being so special and what so many new comers imagine still is so special. It is all of our jobs and responsibility to do all we can so that we don’t become just another East Hampton. Sure we have famous people here, but on Martha’s Vineyard no one gives a damn and we leave them alone. If you ‘GET’ the Vineyard and you want to be here, I can help you get the right place to live your dreams and balance your life. SplitRock Real Estate represents Buyers Only and their dreams.