Do you remember Ray Steven’s 1970’s hit song, “Everything is Beautiful”?
I wonder how that song would play today.
“There is none so blind as he who will not see
We must not close our minds
We must let our thoughts be free
For every hour that passes by
You know the world gets a little bit older
It's time to realize that beauty lies
In the eyes of the beholder.”
For so many people, everything is not beautiful these days and life sucks. But we keep believing and trying to see the beauty in our lives. We must remain positive and hopeful.
The sing-song lyrics go on beseeching us –
“And we gonna get it all together now
Everything gonna work out fine
Just take a little time to look on the good side my friend
And straighten it out in your mind.”
We thought we were getting it all together but now all you hear is double dip recession, disrespect for our elected President and rancor among the political parties.
Working in real estate, I desperately want everything to be beautiful, but the truth is it is going to take longer than any of us thought before everything is beautiful again.
In a survey conducted by the Cape & Plymouth Business group, they concluded that the majority of respondents who were private business owners felt:
The economy will improve slightly in 2011
Small business owners will not hire additional staff
Businesses will not raise capital and if they do it will be through bank loans and private investors
Businesses will not expand or invest in property or equipment
Housing prices will remain flat
The strongest contributors to the Cape and Island economy will be Tourism/Retail and Health Care
Revenue increases of 1% - 10% are projected through local and regional sources
I guess that means there is hope, but not much confidence. Perhaps, because Cape Cod and the Islands are resort destinations, merchants are hoping people will still need mental health R&R vacations in 2011. I could use one right now, but I live here in paradise so I will simply go for a walk and appreciate what I have around me all the time.
What is not beautiful is the looming Shadow Inventory of foreclosures, and in 2011 it is predicted that nationally there will be a record high volume of foreclosures. According to Inman News, Core Logic reported that the "shadow" inventory of homes likely to be repossessed or already in REO inventory but not yet on the market reached 2.1 million units in August, up from 1.9 million units a year ago. Because home sales have also slowed, that represents 8 months supply, up from 5 months one year ago. Adding the 2.1 million shadow inventory to the 4.2 million homes on the market, causes the total supply to reach 23 months of inventory, almost double NAR's estimate in September. In the markets yet to be affected by foreclosures, prices will go down more but in markets where the majority of foreclosures have already occurred, they may have already bottomed out.
Experts predict that when tallied, 2010 will show fewer home sales than 2009 and the dollar volume will be lower than 2009. Keep in mind that 2009 was a lack luster year for sales. The beginning of 2010 was stimulated by the home buyer tax credits so we might consider that as being a false start. The fact of the matter is that there are better opportunities available right now even without the home buyer tax credit, but people are not jumping to take advantage of those once in a lifetime opportunities. Interest rates will most likely go up in 2011, as they already are right now. I doubt that will affect sales because despite the current record low rates it did not have much impact on sales this year. Without a job, job security or a steady income low interest rates become moot.
2011 will prove to be just more of the same and the housing market will not recover until people have jobs and the confidence to act upon their pent-up desire to BUY a home.
However, since Martha’s Vineyard is primarily a second home market I believe everything could be beautiful for those buyers who keep their finger on the pulse, have financial security and recognize that this is probably the best opportunity in their lifetime to own a piece of The Rock. They recognize to wait would be penny wise and dollar foolish. With 712 properties currently on the market and many properties ‘off market’ but still for sale there is a lot to choose from for a very limited pool of qualified buyers. There is no reason why a savvy buyer cannot find a good deal here. Currently, there are 70 properties either under contract or being negotiated, so some people are still singing ‘Everything is Beautiful’.
Over the years, many Buyers who have contacted me, read through the copious amount of FOR BUYERS ONLY information on my website and subscribed to my Buyer's Basic e-Newsletter have remarked that they perceive my function as one of a consultant and information provider, rather than as a 'realtor'. As an exclusive advocate for buyers I believe educating buyers is a vital part of my job. However, as a real estate professional, my business is consummating the purchase and sale of real estate. If you appreciate the consistent effort I make to bring you 'No Bull' educational information, please contact me when you are ready to buy. I want your business, so please come to me first. I can assure you that I will put your interests before my own and do my utmost to negotiate the best price and terms for you. I will work very hard to discover all the details and hidden secrets of the property you are purchasing so that you will not have any unpleasant surprises.
Keep the faith, “The world's gonna find a way.”
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